Last Week – A Rally to Start 2023, Powered by NFP
SPY closed 1.5% higher for the first trading week of 2023, largely on the back of Friday’s positive market reaction to employment and wage data. The VIX is now near 21, down slightly on the week. But options for this week are comparatively high, more on that in a second.
This Week – Options expecting movement for CPI, Earnings Season Gets Real with the Banks.
SPY options are pricing a 2.2% move for this week. The primary uncertainty for the markets this week is the CPI release, which will arrive pre-market Thursday morning. The SPY expected move chart via Options AI shows low IV into the release and the majority of this week’s expected move and an IV spike for Thursday:
Earnings season also kicks off in earnest this week with Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo all reporting Friday morning.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI free tools)
- SPY 2.2%
- QQQ 2.8%
- IWM 2.5%
- DIA 1.9%
- Thursday – CPI, Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday – UofM Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Inflation Expectations
High Options Volume Friday (compared to 30 day averages)
- GE, BIIB, ORCL, M, JWN, COST, ET, TSLA, MSTR, BA, TQQQ, SPY
Earnings This Week
Via the Options AI Earnings Calendar. Expected move, weekly IV, and prior earnings moves (starting with most recent).
- Tilray TLRY / Expected Move: 11.1% / IV 107 / Prior moves: -19%, +12%, +3%, +14%
- Taiwan Semi TSM / Expected Move: 4.9% / IV 48 / Prior moves: +4%, +3%, -3%, +5%
- Bank of America BAC / Expected Move: 4.0% / IV 40 / Recent moves: +6%, 0%, +3%, 0%
- JP Morgan JPM / Expected Move: 3.4% / IV 33 / Recent moves: +2%, -3%, -3%, -6%
- Wells Fargo WFC / Expected Move: 4.3% / IV 43 / Recent moves: +2%, +6%, -5%, +4%
- Citi C / Expected Move: 4.6% / IV 45 / Recent moves: +1%, +13%, +2%, -1%
- United Health UNH / Expected Move: 2.8% / IV 28 / Recent moves: +1%, +5%, 0%, 0%
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