The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was more or less unchanged on the week. Options had priced about a 1% move.
This Week – SPY options are once again pricing about a 1% move (a little less than $5 in either direction) for the upcoming week. With the SPY about $467.50, that corresponds to just above $472 on the upside and around $463 on the downside.
Implied Volatility – The VIX ended Friday around 16.50, basically unchanged on the week. Its high of the week came on Wednesday, around 19.50.
Expected Moves for This Week via Options AI:
- SPY 1%
- QQQ 1.5%
- IWM 1.7%
- DIA 1.2%
In the News
Elon Musk followed through on last week’s promise to sell shares. He was once again on Twitter this weekend implying he has more to sell. Tesla options are pricing about a 6% move for the upcoming week and about 15% into year end. That 15% expected move into year end is near the recent highs and near the levels the stock broke out from about a month ago. Here’s a look at an example condor set at those levels, risking a little less than $7 to make a little more than $3 if the stock were to stay within the range of $830 and $1230:
Expected Moves for Companies Reporting Earnings
Options AI puts the expected move at the heart of its trading experience. Traders are able to quickly generate credit and debit trades based on the Expected Move, or to their own targets in context of the Expected Move. More education on Expected Moves and options trading can be found at Learn / Options AI.
The expected moves are and link to the Options AI Calendar. Recent moves on prior earnings start with the most recent quarter.
Monday
Lucid LCID / Expected Move: 12% / Recent moves: N/A
Tuseday
Walmart WMT / Expected Move: 3.3% / Recent moves: 0%, +2%, -6%
Home Depot HD / Expected Move: 3% / Recent moves: -4%, -1%, -3%
Wednesday
Target TGT / Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: +3%, +6%, -7%
Baidu BIDU / Expected Move: 5.7% / Recent moves: -3%, 0%, -3%
Nvidia NVDA / Expected Move: 5.8% / Recent moves: +4%, -1%, -8%
Cisco CSCO / Expected Move: 4.2% / Recent moves: +4%, +1%, -3%
Thursday
Alibaba BABA / Expected Move: 5.4% / Recent moves: -1%, -6%, -4%
Applied Materials AMAT / Expected Move: 4.5% / Recent moves: -2%, -1%, +5%
Palo Alto PANW / Expected Move: 6.8% / Recent moves: +19%, +6%, -2%
Workday WDAY / Expected Move: 5.3% / Recent moves: +9%, -3%, -2%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.
