The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was higher by about 0.7%, in line with the 0.8% expected move options were pricing.
This Week – SPY options are once again pricing less than a 1% move (in either direction) for the upcoming week. With the SPY around $445 that corresponds to about $442 as a bearish expected move and $449 as a bullish expected move.
Implied Volatility – The VIX was lower on the week, closing around 15.50. That is below its historical average and index/etf expected moves for the next week are tight as a result. The futures curve is upward sloping with December VIX futures around 22.
Expected Moves for This Week via Options AI:
- SPY 0.7%
- QQQ 1%
- IWM 1.7%
- DIA 0.9%
In the News
Robinhood (HOOD) was down about $5 last week. Options were pricing about an $8 move. As is often the case with meme stocks option implied volatility falls when the stocks go lower. HOOD has been no exception. Weekly at-the-money options started last week about 155 vol. The weeklies for this week are around 115 vol. Options were pricing about a 15% move last week. This week they are pricing about an 11% move:
Expected Moves for Companies Reporting Earnings
The Options AI Earnings Calendar is a free resource to keep up to date on upcoming earnings, how options are pricing potential moves, and how that compares to actual moves from prior earnings (starting with most recent).
Options AI puts the expected move at the heart of its trading experience. Traders are able to quickly generate trades based on the move, or to place their own price target in context of the expected move. More education on expected moves and spread trading can be found at Learn / Options AI.
Some earnings of note this week include Nvidia, Cisco, Home Depot and Target.
Home Depot HD / Expected Move: 2.8% / Recent moves: -1%, -3%, -3%
Walmart WMT / Expected Move: 3% / Recent moves: +2%, -6%, -2%
Target TGT / Expected Move: 4.5% / Recent moves: +6%, -7%, +2%
Lowe’s LOW / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: -4%, -8%, 0%
TJ Max TJX / Expected Move: 3.3% / Recent moves: -1%, +2%, -5%
Nvidia NVDA / Expected Move: 4.8% / Recent moves: -1%, -8%, 0%
Cisco CSCO / Expected Move: 3.3% / Recent moves: +1%, -3%, +7%
Macy’s M / Expected Move: 8.6% / Recent moves: +4%, +2%, +1%
Applied Materials AMAT / Expected Move: 4.5% / Recent moves: -1%, +5%, +4%
Deere DE / Expected Move: 3.7% / Recent moves: +1%, +10%, -2%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.