The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY closed about 1.2% higher on the week, in line with the 1.2% move options were pricing. The VIX closed lower on the week, down to 16.70 from 18.60.
This Week – SPY options are pricing a 1% move (in either direction) for the upcoming week. That corresponds to about $418 as a bearish consensus and $427 as a bullish consensus.
Expected Moves for This Week via Options AI:
- SPY 1%
- QQQ 1.6%
- IWM 1.9%
With lower implied vol comes tighter expected moves. QQQ and IWM expected moves are also less than last week. Options AI provides a free expected move calculator that allows you to compare expected moves for up to 5 stock or ETFs on the same chart.
Expected Moves for Companies Reporting Earnings
Earnings season continues with reports from Alibaba, Disney, Palantir and more.
The Options AI Earnings Calendar is a free resource to keep up to date on upcoming earnings, how options are pricing potential moves, and how that compares to actual moves from prior earnings (starting with most recent). Here is a look for at this week (links go to the Options AI Calendar / Expected move page):
Workhorse WKHS / Expected Move: 13% / Recent moves: +7%, +10%, -8%
Novavax NVAX / Expected Move: 14% / Recent moves: -14%, -13%, -16%
Virgin Galactic SPCE / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: +2%, -12%, -1%
TradeDesk TTD / Expected Move: 8% / Recent moves: +7%, +27%, +3%
Palantir PLTR / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: -13%, +8
Electronic Arts EA / Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: -5%, -7%, +2%
fuboTV FUBO / Expected Move:14% / Recent moves: -19%, +2%
Lemonade LMND / Expected Move: 9% / Recent moves: -17%, -12%, -12%
Wix.com WIX / Expected Move: 9% / Recent moves: +8%, -5%, -1%
Alibaba BABA / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: -4%, -3%, -1%
Coinbase COIN / Expected Move: 7% / Recent moves: none
Disney DIS / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: -2%, +2%, +9%
Airbnb ABNB / Expected Move: 8% / Recent moves: +13%
DoorDash DASH / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: +2%
Luminar LAZR / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: none
Yeti YETI / Expected Move: 7% / Recent moves: -8%, +17%, -2%
XPeng XPEV / Expected Move: 8% / Recent moves: -4%, +33%
Aurora Cannabis ACB / Expected Move: 10% / Recent moves: -13%, +15%, -29%
Options AI puts the expected move at the heart of its trading experience. Traders are able to quickly generate trades based on the move, or to place their own price target in context of the expected move. Options AI provides a couple of free tools like an expected move calculator, as well as an earnings calendar. More education on expected moves and spread trading can be found at Learn / Options AI.
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.