First, a couple of earnings moves from last night, GameStop is slightly higher well off its after-hours highs, and now well inside its expected move. UiPath in a very similar situation, slightly higher but off its post-earnings highs outside market hours and now well inside what options were pricing. On the flipside C3.ai Inc (AI)is down about 14%, slightly more than the 12.5% move options were pricing. The big story since late yesterday is AAPL’s quick plunge following reports that the Chinese government is extending the prohibition of Apple’s iPhones. Apple is down more than 7% since yesterday afternoon.
To put that move in perspective, Apple options were not pricing a 7%+ move until late November. In fact, the recent chart in Apple looks a bit detached from current low IV in the options in general, with the stock having just made 7%+ moves several times since late July:
Apple vol is low historically, with 30-day IV about 23, while the past year’s realized vol has been 29. The assumption often with a mega-cap stock like AAPL is that while bouts of volatility happen, the stock will reset to a grind higher at some point with low realized and implied vol. But AAPL has been moving for the past month and change in ways that options continue to underprice.
Docusign is the big earnings after the bell. Options are pricing about a 9% move at the moment. Prior earnings have seen moves of -3, -23% +12% and +11%.
Trending & Moving:
- Wheeler Real Estate (WHLR) +87.44%
- Apple Inc (AAPL) -2.94%
- Cymabay Therapeutics (CBAY) +17.06%
- C3.Ai Inc Cl A (AI) -12.27%
- Novavax Inc (NVAX) +3.90%
- Chargepoint Hldgs Inc (CHPT) -12.61%
- Genfit S.A. ADR (GNFT) +13.03%
- Uipath Inc Cl A (PATH) +2.71%
- Grab Holdings Ltd Cl A (GRAB) -1.64%
- Gamestop Corp (GME) -0.32%
- Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) -6.94%
- Roku Inc (ROKU) -1.15%
Today’s Earnings Highlights:
- DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU) Expected Move: 8.99%
- Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) Expected Move: 6.51%
- RH (RH) Expected Move: 7.00%
- Planet Labs PBC (PL) Expected Move: 16.89%
Full list here: Options AI Earnings Calendar
- At 10:00 AM (EST) Fed Harker Speech Impact: Medium
- At 03:30 PM (EST) Fed Williams Speech Impact: Medium
- At 03:45 PM (EST) Fed Bostic Speech Impact: Medium
- At 04:55 PM (EST) Fed Bowman Speech Impact: Medium
Options AI Scanner Highlights:
Based on the prior day’s trading action.
- Overbought (RSI): HZNP (89), DELL (83), OKTA (77), USO (76), FUTU (73), IBM (72), CSCO (68), HAL (68)
- Oversold (RSI): WBA (15), M (18), JBLU (21), JWN (23), UPS (28), KR (29), KO (30), JETS (30), PEP (34), WFC (34)
- High IV: CHPT (+141%), GME (+134%), ORCL (+134%), NVAX (+127%), AMC (+104%), JBLU (+101%), DOCU (+100%), FUBO (+99%), NKE (+99%)
- Unusual Options Volume: WE (+3000%), AMC (+1237%), GTLB (+1045%), ROKU (+982%), LMT (+936%), ZS (+864%), AI (+598%), CHPT (+565%), PATH (+532%), GLW (+502%), UPS (+469%), DELL (+465%), PINS (+411%), NKE (+398%), AAPL (+398%), GM (+394%), MCD (+357%), LUV (+356%), TSLA (+349%)
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.