The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was lower by around 6%, a significantly larger move than the 3% options were pricing. That’s an 11%+ move lower in the past few weeks.
This Week – Implied volatility is higher than last week. SPY options are pricing about a 2.7% move for the upcoming week (about $10 in either direction), which is slightly less than last week but with 4 days instead of 5.
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed the week near 31, up from 28 the prior week. The VIX was near 35 several times last week which is close to the highs the VIX has seen in earlier spikes this year (March and early May). In both those earlier cases a VIX above 35 marked a temporary low in the market.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.7% (+/- $10)
- QQQ 3.3% (+/- $9)
- IWM 3.3% (+/- $5.5)
- DIA 2.2% (+/- $7)
In the News
Crypto had another volatile weekend with Bitcoin dropping below 18000 on Saturday. It has bounced a bit since then. Options in BTC are now pricing about an 8% move between now and this Friday. ETH options are pricing more than a 10% move.
Last week Microstrategy (MSTR) options were pricing about a 14% move, the stock finished down 17% on the week but was lower by about 25% on its Monday move.
The expected move-in MSTR for the week was around 14.5%. In COIN it is about 12.5%:
Links below go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
- Lennar LEN / Expected Move: 6.4% / Recent moves: +1%, -4%, -1%
- Fedex FDX / Expected Move: 7.1% / Recent moves: -4%, -5%, -9%
- Blackberry BB / Expected Move: 11% / Recent moves: -10%, +2%, +11%
- Accenture ACN / Expected Move: 5.7% / Recent moves: -2%, +7%, +2%
- Carnival CCL / Expected Move: 11.8% / Recent moves: 0%, +3%, +3%
- Carmax KMX / Expected Move: 11.5% / Recent moves: -10%, -7%, -13%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.