The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was lower by about 3% last week, following a similar move lower the week before. That move was slightly more than the 2.5% move options were pricing. Implied volatility was once again higher to finish the week.
This Week – SPY options are pricing about a 3.1% move for the upcoming week (about $13 in either direction).
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed the week above 33, its highest levels since early March.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 3.1% (+/- $13)
- QQQ 4% (+/- $13)
- IWM 3.7% (+/- $7)
- DIA 2.7% (+/- $9)
In the News
From last week’s preview:
Tech and growth stocks weighed on the markets last week. The QQQ is approaching the lows the ETF saw in mid-March. IWM is already at the lows it saw several times this year. Some of the largest cap names in the QQQ report earnings this week and the reaction of the market to those reports will likely determine whether these levels hold.
Those levels did not hold and as the indices cracked implied volatility spiked. The market was led lower by stocks like Amazon, which was -14% on Friday following an unpleasant reaction to its earnings report on Thursday afternoon. Of the large companies to report, Meta and Microsoft were able to buck the trend and finished higher on the week. This week’s earnings aren’t large-cap market movers like last week, but they are reporting into an environment of very high market volatility, the highest of this earnings cycle (so far).
Links below go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
- Expedia EXPE / Expected Move: 8.9% / Recent moves: -3%, +16%, -8%
- MGM Resorts MGM / Expected Move: 6.7% / Recent moves: -3%, -3%, +6%
- Pfizer PFE / Expected Move: 5.3% / Recent moves: -3%, +4%, +3%
- Advanced Micro AMD / Expected Move: 9.2% / Recent moves: +5%, -1%, +8%
- Airbnb ABNB / Expected Move: 9% / Recent moves: +4%, +13%, +1%
- Starbucks SBUX / Expected Move: 5.7% / Recent moves: -1%, -6%, -3%
- Uber UBER / Expected Move: 10.1% / Recent moves: -6%, +4%, +3%
- Moderna MRNA / Expected Move: 10.6% / Recent moves: +15%, -18%, -1%
- Ebay EBAY / Expected Move: 8.3% / Recent moves: +2%, -7%, +1%
- Etsy ETSY / Expected Move: 14.8% / Recent moves: +16%, +13%, -10%
- Shopify SHOP / Expected Move: 12.7% / Recent moves: -16%, +7%, -1%
- Mercado Libre MELI / Expected Move: 10.4% / Recent moves: +4%, +5%, +14%
- Block SQ / Expected Move: 13.3% / Recent moves: +26%, -4%, -2%
- Lucid LCID / Expected Move: 12.4% / Recent moves: -14%, +24%
- Draftkings DKNG / Expected Move: 12.1%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.