Market View
Last Week – SPY rose 3.9% last week, despite disappointing earnings (and gaps lower) in big cap tech names like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon, (Apple’s 7.5% move higher, bucked the trend and helped close the week on a high note). That SPY move higher followed a 5% rally the week before. It is now about 10% above the recent lows. QQQ was up about 2.2% on the week, underperforming the broader market and weighed down by those earnings reports. QQQ is now about 8% higher than its recent lows. The Dow is about 14% higher.
Volatility fell across the board, with the VIX now below 26, both because of the move higher but also with a huge percentage of the SPX market cap now having reported.
This Week – SPY options are pricing about a 2.5% move for the upcoming week. That implies a move of just under $10 in either direction. The VIX closed last week under 26, its lowest levels since mid September but still higher than average. It got as low as 19 in August.
The economic calendar this week features both the FOMC, where a 0.75 rate increase is expected, and the NFP jobs number to round out the week.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.5% (+/- $10)
- QQQ 3.2% (+/- $9)
- IWM 3.1% (+/- $5)
- DIA 2.3% (+/- $7)
Economic Calendar
- Tuesday – ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday – ADP Employment, Fed rate decision, FOMC press conference
- Thursday – ISM Services PMI
- Friday – Non Farm Payrolls
Earnings This Week
Expected moves for companies reporting this week. Recent moves indicate what the stock did in its past few reports (starting with the most recent). Data is via the Options AI Earnings Calendar and other companies can be found at the link (free to use).
Tuesday
- Sofi SOFI / Expected Move: 14.5% / Recent moves: +28%, +5%, +3%, +12%
- Uber UBER / Expected Move: 7% / Recent moves: +19%, -5%, -6%, +4%
- AMD AMD / Expected Move: 6.8% / Recent moves: -1%, +9% +5%
Wednesday
- Qualcomm QCOM / Expected Move: 7.1% / Recent moves: -5%, +10%, -5%, +13%
- Roku ROKU / Expected Move: 14.9% / Recent moves: -23%, +1%, -22%, -8%
- Robinhood HOOD / Expected Move: 9.3% / Recent moves: +6%, +12%, -3%, +10%
Thursday
- Paypal PYPL / Expected Move: 9.9% / Recent moves: +9%, +11%, -25%, -10%
- Coinbase COIN / Expected Move: 12.7% / Recent moves: +7%, -26%, -2%, -8%
- Starbucks SBUX / Expected Move: 5.2% / Recent moves: +4%, +10%, -1%
- Block SQ / Expected Move: 10.2% / Recent moves: -2%, +1%, +26%, -4%
- Peloton PTON / Expected Move: 15.6% / Recent moves: -18%, -9%, +4%, -35%
Friday
- Draftkings DKNG / Expected Move: 10.7% / Recent moves: +10%, -9%, -22%, -2%
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Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.
