The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY closed on Friday down 2.8% on the week, in line with the 2.7% move options were pricing. Implied volatility was unchanged for the week.
This Week – SPY options are pricing about a 2.8% move this week (about $12 in either direction).
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed last week near 31, down slightly from 32 the prior Friday.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.7% (about $12)
- QQQ 3.5% (about $11.50)
- IWM 3.4% (about $7)
- DIA 2.5% (about $8.50)
In the News
Last week, we highlighted the extreme implied vol in energy and commodity-related names. USO, the United States Oil fund, was pricing about a 9% move for the week. It essentially made that move before the week even started as oil futures spiked Sunday and USO was up 8-9% pre-market on Monday. It reversed and by the end of the week actually finished lower, by about 4% on the week. Implied volatility in the space also contracted slightly, with USO options pricing in about a 7% move this week vs the 9% last week. USO IV remains high as its 30 day implied volatility is about 187% higher than its one-year realized volatility.
Some expected moves for the upcoming week: USO: 7%, XLE 4.2%, XOM: 4.2%, CVX: 4.2%, OXY, 7.6%, BTU: 12.4%, WEAT: 9.2%.
Even though IV cam in a bit in these names last week, they continue to show up on the High IV vs historical lists, with interest rate and currency-related ETFs also showing high IV vs historical:
Links go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
Coupa COUP / Expected Move: 12.5% / Recent moves: -3%, -4%, -8%
Jabil JBL / Expected Move: 6.6% / Recent moves: +1%, -6%, +2%
FedEx FDX / Expected Move: 7.4% / Recent moves: +5%, -9%, -4%
Dollar General DG / Expected Move: 5.4% / Recent moves: -3%, -4%, +2%
GameStop GME / Expected Move: 16.5% / Recent moves: -10%, 0%, -28%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.