The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was lower by about 1.3% last week, inline with the 1.3% move options were pricing%. Implied volatility was slightly higher on the week.
This Week – SPY options are pricing about a 1.4% move this week (about $6 in either direction) into Thursday’s close. Markets are closed on Friday.
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed last week above 21. That is slightly higher than historical averages.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 1.4% (about $6.50)
- QQQ 2.2% (about $8)
- IWM 2.0% (about $4)
- DIA 1.3% (about $4.50)
In the News
Elon Musk moved Twitter stock last week as it was announced he took a sizeable holding in the company and a board seat. The stock was higher by about 18% on the week. Options volume remained high even into Friday with the day’s volume about 300% more than the monthly average. Implied volatility is also higher. Options are pricing about a 5.5% move for the upcoming week, and about 13% to the end of April. The company is due to report earnings the last week of April:
The Earnings Calendar picks up this week with the major financial institutions like Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and JPM Morgan reporting. Links go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
Carmax KMX / Expected Move: 9.2% / Recent moves: -7%, -13%, +7%
JP Morgan Chase JPM / Expected Move: 3.8% / Recent moves: -6%, -3%, -1%
Delta Air DAL / Expected Move: 5.2% / Recent moves: +2%, -6%, -2%
Blackrock BLK / Expected Move: 4.9% / Recent moves: -2%, +4%, -3%
Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY / Expected Move: 14.9% / Recent moves: +8%, -22%, +11%
Taiwan Semi TSM / Expected Move: 4.7% / Recent moves: +5%, +2%, -6%
Wells Fargo WFC / Expected Move: 4.5% / Recent moves: +4%, -2%, +4%
Goldman Sachs GS / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: -7%, +4%, -1%
Citi C / Expected Move: 4.1% / Recent moves: -1%, +1%, 0%
Morgan Stanley MS / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: +2%, +2%, 0%
United Health UNH / Expected Move: 3% / Recent moves: 0%, +4%, +1%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.