The week ahead in options. SPY, QQQ, IWM, Tesla, Tilray and more.


The Broader Markets

Last Week – SPY was essentially unchanged on the week, but moved higher and then lower by almost 2%. Implied volatility was lower on the week.

This Week – SPY options are pricing about a 1.3% move this week (about $6 in either direction), the smallest move priced by options since January

Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed last week below 20. That is its lowest level of implied vol since January.

Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)

  • SPY 1.3% (about $6)
  • QQQ 1.9% (about $7)
  • IWM 2.0% (about $4.25)
  • DIA 1.2% (about $4.25)


In the News

Tesla (TSLA) stock is higher by about 40% in the past 3 weeks. As mentioned in these posts for some time, Tesla options have been consistently underpricing its large moves (both higher and lower) since its October ’21 breakout.

Over the weekend the company reported vehicle deliveries of 310k, slightly lower than analyst expectations. Options are pricing about a 6% move in TSLA this week and about 13% for the next month.


Earnings

The Earnings Calendar is light this week. Significant earnings begin to ramp up the following week with the large financial companies reporting mid April and the large tech names in late April. Links go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:

Monday

Newegg NEGG / Expected Move: 18.5% 

Wednesday

Levi‘s LEVI / Expected Move: 19% (April 14th expiry) / Recent moves: +8%, +8%, +1%

Tilray TLRY / Expected Move: 13.6% / Recent moves: +14%, +2%, +26%

Thursday

Constellation Brands STZ / Expected Move: 3.6% / Recent moves: -3%, -1%, +1%

Conagra Brands CAG / Expected Move: 3.6% / Recent moves: -2%, -1%, -5%


Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.

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