The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was lower by about 3.1% last week, a larger move than the 1.8% options were pricing. That’s the second week in a row with the market much lower than options were pricing. Implied volatility was once again higher to finish the week.
This Week – SPY options are now pricing about a 2.5% move for the week (about $10.50 in either direction).
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed the week above 28, up substantially on the week. It was last at these levels in mid March.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.5% (about $10.50)
- QQQ 3.6% (about $10.50)
- IWM 3.1% (about $6)
- DIA 2.3% (about $8)
In the News
Tech and growth stocks weighed on the markets last week. The QQQ is approaching the lows the ETF saw in mid-March. IWM is already at the lows it saw several times this year. Some of the largest cap names in the QQQ report earnings this week and the reaction of the market to those reports will likely determine whether these levels hold.
Links below go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
UPS UPS / Expected Move: 7.0% / Recent moves: +14%, +7%, -7%
Microsoft MSFT / Expected Move: 5.6% / Recent moves: +3%, +4%, 0%
Alphabet GOOGL / Expected Move: 6.9% / Recent moves: +8%, +5%, +3%
General Motors GM / Expected Move: 6.4% / Recent moves: -1%, -5%, +3%
Chipotle CMG / Expected Move: 6.3% / Recent moves: +10%, -3%, +12%
Boeing BA / Expected Move: 5.4% / Recent moves: -5%, -2%, +4%
Spotify SPOT / Expected Move: 13.2% / Recent moves: -17%, +8%, -6%
Meta FB / Expected Move: 11% / Recent moves: -27%, -4%, -4%
Paypal PYPL / Expected Move: 10.7% / Recent moves: -25%, -10%, -6%
ServiceNow NOW / Expected Move: 8.3% / Recent moves: +9%, +3%, +1%
Qualcomm QCOM / Expected Move: 7.1% / Recent moves: -5%, +13%, +6%
Twitter TWTR / Expected Move: 10.2% / Recent moves: -3%, -11%, +3%
Apple AAPL / Expected Move: 4.9% / Recent moves: +7%, -2%, -1%
Amazon AMZN / Expected Move: 6.1% / Recent moves: +14%, -2%, -8%
Roku ROKU / Expected Move: 14.4% / Recent moves: -22%, -8%, -4%
Intel INTC / Expected Move: 6.4% / Recent moves: -7%, -12%, -5%
Robinhood HOOD / Expected Move: 12.9% / Recent moves: +10%, -10%, -10%
Exxon Mobile XOM / Expected Move: 3.7% / Recent moves: +6%, 0%, -2%
Chevron CVX / Expected Move: 3.9% / Recent moves: -4%, +1%, -1%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.