Hello!
Last week was a rough one for the indices with SPY, QQQ and IWM all about 2.6% lower. Unlike recent weeks there wasn’t much two-way movement, it felt like a meltdown lower with very weak attempts at bounces. On Thursday and Friday the indices approached some areas that bulls had been eyeing as a potential support and again only saw weak defense of those areas. Throughout the entire sell-off things have been fairly orderly overall. And that is reflected in the fact that the VIX hasn’t really gotten above 22, even recently. The 20 area in the VIX had been where the market had seen buyers step in over the past 9 months or so but not this time. Whether that gets resolved with a VIX spike closer to 30 soon or not remains to be seen but traders should be watching that for any sort of capitulation indication of at least this recent selling causing a little panic selling of stocks. 0DTE and weekly IV is certainly higher now with daily expected moves now regularly over 1%. (compare that to 0.5% over the Summer).
This week has the potential for some resolution on some of these questions as we get to hear from the FOMC / Powell on Wednesday and the Payrolls number on Friday as well as another jam-packed earnings week highlighted by names like AMD and Apple.
SPY
- Weekly Expected Move: 2%
- Weekly Range (roughly) $402.50 – $419
- 0DTE/Daily Expected move: 0.9%
QQQ
- Weekly Expected Move: 2.5%
- Weekly Range (roughly): $337-$354
- 0DTE/Daily Expected Moves: 1.2%
Economic Calendar
- Wednesday – ADP Employment, ISM Maufacturing, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference
- Friday – NFP Payrolls, ISM Services
Earnings of Note
Monday
- MCD McDonald’s Corporation 3.1%
- AMGN Amgen Inc. 3.4%
- ANET Arista Networks, Inc. 8.2%
- ON ON Semiconductor Corporation 7.1%
Tuesday
- PFE Pfizer Inc .3.9%
- AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.7.0%
- BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV 3.7%
- MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation 4.0%
- SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc. 10.0%
- FSLR First Solar, Inc. 8.6%
- PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. 10.4%
Wednesday
- NVO Novo Nordisk A/S 4.6%
- ABNB Airbnb, Inc. 8.1%
- HUM Humana Inc. 3.8%
- PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 8.7%
- MNST Monster Beverage Corporation 5.6%
- ET Energy Transfer LP 2.8%
- MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated 8.3%
- YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. 4.5%
- DASH DoorDash, Inc. 8.3%
Thursday
- AAPL Apple Inc. 3.9%
- LLY Eli Lilly and Company 5.0%
- SBUX Starbucks Corporation 5.2%
- BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. 5.4%
- REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 4.2%
- SHOP Shopify Inc. 9.4%
- MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. 7.4%
- PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc.11.8%
- MRNA Moderna, Inc. 9.1%
Friday
- UI Ubiquiti Inc. 16.1%
- IMGN ImmunoGen, Inc. 14.0%
- FUBO fuboTV Inc. 16.1%
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