The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY finished the week inside its expected move, down about 0.5% vs the 1.5% move options were pricing for the week. The VIX closed just above 20, slightly higher on the week.
This Week – SPY options are pricing a 1.4% move (in either direction) for the upcoming week. That corresponds to about $410 as a bearish consensus and $421 as a bullish consensus.
Expected Moves for This Week via Options AI:
- SPY 1.4% (slightly less than last week)
- QQQ 1.9% (same as last week)
- IWM 2.3% (slightly less than last week)
In the News
Crypto currencies remain front and center. Expected moves for this week:
- Bitcoin: 15%
- Ethereum: 20%
Crypto related stocks:
- Coinbase COIN 7%
- Riot Blockchain RIOT 14%
- Marathon Digital MARA 14%
Expected Moves for Companies Reporting Earnings
Earnings season continues with reports from Salesforce, Nvidia, Costco, Best Buy and more.
The Options AI Earnings Calendar is a free resource to keep up to date on upcoming earnings, how options are pricing potential moves, and how that compares to actual moves from prior earnings (starting with most recent). Here is a look for at this week (links go to the Options AI Calendar / Expected move page):
Intuit INTU / Expected Move: 3% / Recent moves: +4%, -4%, +2%
Toll Brothers TOL / Expected Move: 6% / Recent moves: +3%, -8%, -2%
Nordstrom JWM / Expected Move: 9% / Recent moves: -3%, +12%. -5%
Nvidia NVDA / Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: -8%, 0%, 0%
Snowflake SNOW / Expected Move: 8% / Recent moves: +1%, +16%
Workday WDAY / Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: -2%, -9%, +12%
Okta OKTA / Expected Move: 6% / Recent moves: -6%, +5%, -5%
Salesforce CRM / Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: -6%, -9%, +26%
Best Buy BBY / Expected Move: 6% / Recent moves: -9%, -7%, -4%
Costco COST/ Expected Move: 3% / Recent moves: -1%, +1%, -1%
Autodesk ADSK/ Expected Move: 5% / Recent moves: -3%, +5%, -2%
Options AI puts the expected move at the heart of its trading experience. Traders are able to quickly generate trades based on the move, or to place their own price target in context of the expected move.
Here’s an example of using the expected move to generate an Iron Condor that “sells the move” in CRM. The Condor looks to profit if CRM stays within its expected move following earnings. It is a max gain between 212.50 and 232.50. If the stock moves beyond what options are pricing, the Condor is a max loss (with defined risk):
More education on expected moves and spread trading can be found at Learn / Options AI.
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.