Hello!
The indices are flat to start this Wednesday. Some important economic data just dropped but it doesn’t seem to be moving markets too much. GDP was revised lower and ADP jobs was lower than expected. The US 1 and 2-year yields are down slightly.
Today we have a slew of earnings after the bell, with Salesforce and Crowdstrike headlining, but also Okta, Chewy, Five Below and more. See below for current expected moves. We looked at CRM yesterday so let’s cover CRWD today. Here’s the current expected move chart:
The expected move of 7% compares to recent actual moves of -2%,
+3%, -15% and -6%. Of the past 10 earnings, CRWD has only moved more that 7% (today’s expected move) twice. Those two moves were 15% and 12%. So most of the time the stock has moved less than 7%, but in the few cases where it didn’t it was about twice that. Weekly option IV is about 100, with 30 day out IV half that, around 50.
The stock’s actual vol over the past month has been about 50, which matches its 30 day IV, but also its past year’s realized vol as well. So 30 day options are priced to exactly how the stock has been trading and this week’s are priced for twice that.
An Iron Condor, selling the 7% move would need the stock to stay between $134 and $160 essentially. With max gain between $136 and $157.50. It risks about $3 to make $2.
Early movers:
- Ambarella (AMBA) -21.48%
- Digital Brands Group Inc (DBGI) +66.55%
- Black Spade Acquisition Cl A (VFS) +12.04%
- Marathon Digital Hldgs Inc (MARA) -3.07%
- Tivic Health Systems Inc (TIVC) -10.74%
Earnings After the Bell with Expected Moves:
- Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) Expected Move: 5.60%
- CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Expected Move: 7.01%
- Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV) Expected Move: 7.30%
- The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO) Expected Move: 4.60%
- Okta, Inc. (OKTA) Expected Move: 10.00%
- Chewy, Inc. (CHWY) Expected Move: 10.96%
- Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) Expected Move: 9.93%
- Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) Expected Move: 5.20%
- Victoria’s Secret & Co. (VSCO) Expected Move: 13.20%
Full list here: Options AI Earnings Calendar
Economic Calendar:
- At 10:00 AM (EST) Pending Home Sales YoY (Jul)
Trade Scanner:
- Overbought (RSI): SPLK (77), FUTU (71), FANG (71), CSCO (71), BB (69), ET (67), GPS (65), AMGN (65)
- Oversold (RSI): M (19), JWN (22), FTCH (25), RAD (29), JBLU (29), CHWY (33), DKS (33), FCEL (33), CVS (34)
- High IV: WE (+493%), ORCL (+131%), GME (+118%), CHWY (+118%), LULU (+114%), NVAX (+110%), KBH (+109%)
- Unusual Options Volume: COIN (+761%), MARA (+743%), GS (+719%), MSTR (+662%), FUTU (+504%), TSLA (+482%), GOOGL (+445%)
Full lists here: Options AI Free Tools.
The Options AI Team
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.
