The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY declined 5% last week, more than reversing the nearly 4% rally the week before and once again moving much more than options were pricing (options were pricing a 2% move).
This Week – SPY options are pricing a 2.7% move for the upcoming week.
Implied Volatility / VIX – The VIX closed above 26 on Friday, up from 23 the week before. It is indicated higher, near 28, to begin Monday.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.7% (+/- $10.50)
- QQQ 3.4% (+/- $10)
- IWM 3.2% (+/- $5.50)
- DIA 2.4% (+/- $7.50)
In the News
As bond prices/yields have taken center stage as the most likely driver of stock market moves day to day it’s a good time to check in on TLT which is one of the more actively traded bond ETFs. TLT is down more than 30% since Dec ’21 and down 10% since August 1st. Options are pricing about a 4.3% move a month out, and about 8% into year-end:
Links below go to the Options AI calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts (free to use). Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
- Autozone AZO / Expected Move: 4.6% / Recent moves: -6%, -3%, +8%
- StitchFix SFIX / Expected Move: 16.9% / Recent moves: -19%, -6%, -24%
- Lennar LEN / Expected Move: 5.7% / Recent moves: +2%, +1%, -4%
- Costco COST / Expected Move: 4% / Recent moves: +1%, -1%, +7%
- FedEx FDX / Expected Move: 6.1% / Recent moves: +7%, -4%, +5%
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Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.