The Broader Markets
Last Week – SPY was higher on the week by 1%, a move less than the 3% move options were pricing. However, it was down by roughly 3.5% on Monday and remained volatile throughout before finishing on the highs for the week.
This Week – SPY options are pricing a nearly 2.5% move this week (about $11 in either direction).
Implied Volatility / VIX – Implied volatility is less than last week but still high historically. The VIX closed Friday below near 27.5. That was down slightly from last week and down significantly from the upper 30’s it saw in the early part of last week. As mentioned last week:
Since the pandemic sell-off in early 2020, the VIX has spiked above the 30 level 5-6 times. Each time marked an end to that particular selloff/correction. However, on sustained selloffs (or crashes), implied volatility can go much higher.
The spike in the VIX to the upper 30’s last was followed by a bounce in stocks but intra-day volatility was consistent even as the market finished slightly higher on the week. Therefore implied volatility remains elevated.
Expected Moves for This Week (via Options AI)
- SPY 2.5% (about $11)
- QQQ 3.1% (about $11)
- IWM 3.5% (about $6)
- DIA 2.1% (about $7)
In the News
Bitcoin options are pricing about a 5% move into Friday. Ethereum options are pricing about a 6% move. Both of those moves are less than what was priced last week.
Links go to the Options AI Earnings Calendar where you can see the other companies each day and click through to see charts. Recent earnings moves (actual) start with the most recent:
Alphabet GOOGL / Expected Move: 4.7% / Recent moves: +5%, 0%, +3%
Exxon Mobile XOM / Expected Move: 5.4% / Recent moves: 0%, -2%, -3%
Paypal PYPL / Expected Move: 6.9% / Recent moves: -10%, -2%, +2%
Starbucks SBUX / Expected Move: 4.4% / Recent moves: -6%, -3%, -3%
AMD AMD / Expected Move: 8.2% / Recent moves: -1%, +8%, -1%
Meta FB / Expected Move: 5.6% / Recent moves: -4%, -4%, +7%
Qualcomm QCOM / Expected Move: 6.9% / Recent moves: +13%, +6%, +5%
Spotify SPOT / Expected Move: 15.6% / Recent moves: +8%, -6%, -12%
Amazon AMZN / Expected Move: 4.8% / Recent moves: -2%, -8%, 0%
Ford F / Expected Move: 7% / Recent moves: +9%, -9%
Snap SNAP / Expected Move: 3.1% / Recent moves: -27%, +24%, +8%
Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC a registered broker-dealer.