Expected Move

What is the Expected Move?  

The expected move is the amount that options traders believe a stock price will move up or down. It can serve as a quick way to see where real-money option traders are pricing the future of a stock.

That consensus is derived from the price of at-the-money options. The bigger the move, the more uncertainty or implied volatility is priced into the options. 

Knowing this consensus before making a trade can be incredibly powerful, regardless of whether you’re using stock or options to make your trade. A helping hand with setting more informed price targets as well as a useful basis for starting strike selection.

An easy way to think of the expected move is if the stock stays within the range, options were overpriced, and if the stock goes beyond the expected move, options were underpriced.

On Options AI, it is calculated using real-time option prices and displayed on a chart like this, with the bullish and bearish expected move shown for each expiry:

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