Expected moves: VIX pickup, SPY, QQQ Grind lower. Rare Friday Earns from Palo Alto.


Hello!

Stocks are lower again to start Friday. It’s been a rough week overall, with the SPY down about 2.5% or so. That’s more than double the move options were pricing, and the moves have been a bit more than 0DTE options have been pricing each day. Near-term options are waking up a bit, with 0DTE pricing in expected moves for SPY now out at about 0.7% or so each day, that’s up from just 0.4% a few weeks ago. The VIX is now near 19 meaning 30-day vol is back to about its historical average. One interesting data point to add to this is that the SPY itself has not been THAT volatile. It’s off a bit more than 5% from its highs, and the recent selling has been a grind lower, not much panic selling. That’s not just a vibe, the realized vol in SPY for the past 30 days is still just 10. That will likely begin to increase a bit with the past week seeing moves in excess of what options were pricing, but again, the selling has been orderly in the major indices thus far.

Nothing on the economic data front today but next week is the Jackson Hole Conference which takes on some additional significance after this week’s more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes as well as what’s going on in China’s markets.

A rare after-hours on Friday earnings report today from Palo Alto Networks. That may have some traders spooked a bit as it does feel like a Friday news dump (where you’d try to bury bad news when everyone is already away from their desks). However, the last SP 500 company to do the same was Nike in 2020 and that report was good. So who knows. Here’s how options are trying to price the event, an odd one as you have to go out to next Friday’s options, not today’s, to trade options that capture the event:

r/options - Expected moves: VIX pickup, SPY, QQQ Grind lower. Rare Friday Earns from Palo Alto

The 8% move matches that prior reports actual move of +8%. The three prior reports saw moves of +13%, +7% and +12%.

Early Moves

  • Farfetch Ltd Cl A (FTCH) -42.23%
  • Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) +16.04%
  • Tesla Inc (TSLA) -2.47%
  • Xpeng Inc ADR (XPEV) -6.96%
  • Nvidia Corp (NVDA) -1.69%
  • Marathon Digital Hldgs Inc (MARA) -6.78%
  • Bilibili Inc ADR (BILI) -4.82%
  • Jd.com Inc ADR (JD) -4.78%
  • Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) -1.85%
  • Coinbase Global Inc Cl A (COIN) -4.54%
  • Meta Platforms Inc (META) -1.70%

Expected Earnings Moves

  • Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Expected Move: 8%

Full list here: Options AI Earnings Calendar

Economic Calendar:

none

Trade Scanner:

  • Overbought (RSI): GRPN (80), CSCO (66)
  • Oversold (RSI): WOLF (25), SNAP (25), SQ (26)
  • High IV: FTCH (+149%), ORCL (+148%), M (+139%), KSS (+131%), ZM (+129%)
  • Unusual Options Volume: NVO (+1155%), HSBC (+1013%), ITB (+919%), WOLF (+889%), FTCH (+801%), GSK (+782%), MMM (+782%)

Full lists here: Options AI Free Tools.

That’s all for now. Have a great day!

The Options AI Team

www.optionsai.com


Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.

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