Expected moves: SPY, Rivian, Twilio, Lyft and more.

Good Morning!

Futures are lower this morning following bank downgrades. On the economic front, we saw some FOMC speeches. Philly Fed President Harker suggested the Fed is done with rate hikes. 1,2, and 10 yr US treasury yields are all lower this morning. The VIX is back towards 17 this morning, continuing a recent wake-up in option vol from the mid-summer doldrums. 17 is still below the historical mean but option prices aren’t as dirt cheap as they were just a few weeks ago. 0DTE SPY IV for today closed at just 7 yesterday, pricing in less than an 0.5% move, futures are already lower by more than that pre-market so expected an increase in that IV on the open. SPY vol for Thursday and Friday closed yesterday at 11, still low but showing an upward curve. 30-day IV in SPY (at the money) was closer to 14.

Early Active/Movers:

  • Palantir Technologies Inc Cl A (PLTR) -1.89%
  • Bright Minds Biosciences Inc (DRUG) +93.17%
  • Datadog Inc Cl A (DDOG) -21.83%
  • Novo Nordisk A/S ADR (NVO) +13.31%
  • Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) +7.91%
  • Snowflake Inc Cl A (SNOW) -6.19%
  • Rivian Automotive Inc Cl A (RIVN) -2.14%
  • Marathon Digital Hldgs Inc (MARA) +1.46%
  • Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) -6.18%
  • Chegg Inc (CHGG) +20.64%

Today’s Earnings Highlights:

  • Coupang, Inc. (CPNG) Expected Move: 7.04%
  • Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) Expected Move: 5.75%
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Expected Move: 12.02%
  • Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Expected Move: 11.00%
  • Twilio Inc. (TWLO) Expected Move: 10.76%
  • Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Expected Move: 11.83%
  • Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Expected Move: 11.20%
  • AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC) Expected Move: 16.12%
  • Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Expected Move: 20.59%
  • Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) Expected Move: 14.74%
  • LegalZoom.com, Inc. (LZ) Expected Move: 10.75%
  • Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (MARA) Expected Move: 8.49%

Full list here: Options AI Earnings Calendar

Economic Calendar:

  • At 08:15 AM (EST) Fed Harker Speech Impact: Medium
  • At 08:30 AM (EST) Fed Barkin Speech Impact: Medium

Scanner Highlights:

  • Overbought (RSI): RAD (85), AMGN (78), BRK/B (73)
  • Oversold (RSI): MRNA (21), TTWO (36), PYPL (37), TXN (38)
  • High IV: RAD (+222%), AMC (+174%), PLTR (+137%), UPST (+136%), BMBL (+123%), DDOG (+118%), RIVN (+117%)
  • Unusual Options Volume: CHGG (+726%), DDOG (+721%), RAD (+694%), PLTR (+665%), LAZR (+621%), MRNA (+604%), LLY (+599%), BRK/B (+464%)

Chart of the Day:

RIVN options are pricing about a 12% move for earnings. Recent earnings actual moves have been -18%, +17%, 0%, and +18%.

r/options - Expected moves: SPY, Rivian, Twilio, Lyft and more.

Full lists here: Options AI Free Tools.

That’s all for now. Have a great day!

The Options AI Team


Based upon publicly available information derived from option prices at the time of publishing. Intended for informational and educational purposes only and is not any form of recommendation of a particular security, strategy or to open a brokerage account. Options price data and past performance data should not be construed as being indicative of future results and do not guarantee future results or returns. Options involve risk, including exposing investors to potentially significant losses and are therefore not suitable for all investors. Option spreads involve additional risks that should be fully understood prior to investing. Securities trading is offered through Options AI Financial, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.

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