With the final tallies of Tuesday’s election still rolling in, the market has made a sharp move higher. The market was pricing in about a 3.8% move for the week going into Tuesday’s vote, with about 3.5% of that priced for Wednesday alone. Here is how that expected move looked Monday:
The SPY is now nearly $350, an actual move of about 6.5% higher. The options market underpriced the move.
Alongside that move higher, implied volatility has fallen. The VIX is now ~27 after being ~37 into the election. That lower volatility is reflected in a new expected move for the next week. With about 1.8% priced for tomorrow’s close, and 2.2% a week out:
Tonight, there are a few earnings reports of note. Here’s a look at the expected moves in actively traded stocks Peloton, Uber, Roku and Square: